Is it far from canceling the benchmark lending rate after the LPR reform?
On August 20, the new LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) price was officially released.
In more than a month, the first single credit asset-backed securities (ABS) linked to LPR (loan quoted interest rate) also appeared before the holiday.
The issuance of this product realizes the pricing mechanism of LPR linked to the average price of the asset side and the securities side, which can play the role of credit asset securitization to eliminate the function of “value discovery” and reverse the process of interest rate marketization.
In this issue, the chief economist of Founder Securities (right protection) believes that in the future, various financial assets will gradually be transformed into MLF to LPR as the new benchmark.
Taking LPR as the anchor means gradually achieving higher efficiency and flexibility to influence the pricing of financial assets through open market operations, and the goal of opening up the monetary policy replacement mechanism will also be gradually realized, which is perfect for the improvement of the monetary policy decision mechanism andOptimization has profound implications.
How effective is the LPR reform?
What is the significance of the advent of the first LPR-linked credit asset-backed securities for the further advancement of LPR reform and interest rate liberalization reform?
What are the expectations for MLF’s future cuts?
What kind of logic does the idea of monetary policy decision-making mechanism promote and reform?
Chief countermeasures This issue talks to Founder Securities chief economist color.
The main point of color: The progress of LPR reform is generally in line with expectations. The entire conversion process is relatively smooth and stable. The long-term downward adjustment of LPR will be a more obvious trend.
In the future, budget loans will gradually shift to using LPR as an anchor, which is an important step to open up the conversion mechanism. In the following year, it is hoped that the benchmark interest rate for loans will be gradually cancelled.
MLF operations are normalized.
LPR is quoted monthly, and MLF can also be operated monthly to set the tone for LPR.
In this case, the MLF interest rate may still be reduced during the year.
The long-term gradual downward adjustment of LPR is a more certain trend. Finance and Economics: We have seen that the reform of LPR has reached the full moon, and the price has also been adjusted during this period. How do you think the effect of this month?
Color: I think the price of LPR has actually been quoted twice since the first reform on August 20, and each time it has been slightly reduced.
In general, I think that the reform of LPR is mainly related to the interest rate of incremental loans, so it is generally consistent with what is expected, and the entire conversion process is relatively smooth and stable.
In the future, LPR is mainly in the trend of tight and loose overall liquidity. So last month, it was mainly because of our overall reduction plus directional reduction, so there was a certain financing cost.The downward adjustment of LPR is also reflected in LPR, so in the future, monetary policy will generally be loose or tight, and it will affect LPR in general. I think that LPR is gradually reduced in the long run. This is a relatively certain trend.
The first ABS linked to the LPR came out with higher interest rates. The first financial and economics: During the reform of the LPR, the first credit asset-backed securities have also come out, which means that both the asset side and the securities side have begun to communicate with LPR.How is pricing linked? What is its significance and far-reaching impact?
Color: I think its meaning and impact are more in line with our overall monetary policy, which is a direction of interest rate liberalization reform.
Once the successful transformation, I think the pricing of various financial assets should be gradually determined as the LPR anchor. I want the asset securitization products to be based on his pricing. I think this is in line with the general monetary policy direction, that is, pricing marketization.Direction.
I think its far-reaching significance is that it will no longer be a loan in the future, but also a short-term one-year or three-year term, including housing loans.
We know that the mortgage has been converted to LPR on October 8th. In the future, various financial assets will gradually become MLF to LPR as the new so-called benchmark, which means that in the future, it can be more efficient and more flexible.Through the adjustment of open market operations and MLF interest rates, it can directly affect the pricing of financial assets in financial markets. Therefore, we repeatedly announced the exchange rate mechanism to open up monetary policy. I think this goal will be gradually achieved.Far-reaching.
LPR reform effectively achieves the goal of structural monetary policy. First fiscal: During the LPR reform process, we also conducted a RRR cut. How do we look at the relationship between the current RRR cut and the LPR, and then there are many problems that cannot be solved by targeted RRR cuts?Can LPR solve it?
What is the optimal combination of each next?
Color: From some of our previous directional reduction operations, it was for some private small and micro enterprises (enterprises) or for some rural commercial banks in some places. It has two purposes in it.
The first is for some industries, industries, and regions that we urgently need to support. We need to give some financial policies, especially funds, some key support and support.
The other is to deal with some relatively significant financial shocks, so it is a guiding ideology that mainly reflects a structural monetary policy.
I think these two are definitely not conflicts in the first place.
The LPR itself is a comprehensive cost reflected. It is more affected by this overall level reduction. The overall level reduction will provide more liquidity, and more liquidity, because we know that gradually gettingRelatively speaking, the cost of liquidity will be relatively low, so in general, it will definitely be affected by the corresponding LPR, that is, driving the gradual decline of LPR, if we say that we will reduce the overall level.
The targeted reduction will be reflected on the interest rate of some customers, that is, the LPR will be increased. How much will this increase?
If we say that the directional downgrade has a specific liquidity for certain types of industries, this arrangement will be reflected on the point, so the ultimate purpose is to replace the interest rate from LPR to the terminal, so we think it isA rich and abundant toolbox embodying monetary policy is certainly not contradictory.
And after the LPR reform, I think it will be more helpful to structural monetary policy. It can also be said that targeted reductions can achieve its policy-making goals.
LPR just determines the optimal loan interest rate. The first fiscal: There is a voice in the market that the LPR reform is a pricing method, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, it may not necessarily reduce their loan interest rates. What do you think about this?That saying?
Color: LPR reform is a reform of the policy framework. He did not say who must be lowered or who must be improved.
In other words, after we established such an asynchronous mechanism, let’s be straightforward, that is, if we respond to the needs of the macro economy, we will be more efficient if we want to rise, and we will be more efficient if we want to lower.drop.
Therefore, it does not mean that we must drop or rise. Under the current economic situation, generally speaking, LPR goes down and gradually adjusts downward. This is the current situation.After we established this framework, if we say that our economic rebound is relatively strong, we may also say the opposite operation, which is the first.
Second, the definition of LPR is the optimal loan interest rate. The optimal debt interest rate means the interest rate of the customer of your highest quality. The other customers actually reflect a risk premium, which is the plus point on the LPR.
If you speak from the theoretical definition, of course, it may not necessarily say that the LPR will decrease, and the small and medium micro (loan interest rate) will necessarily decrease. No one can guarantee this, because the core of our interest rate marketization is that the bank must base its riskAssess the situation, then make a risk assessment of these companies, and then have a market-based pricing.
So what do you mean by the cost of interest rates for SMEs?
Certainly the bank will make an assessment, but it is said that it will be mainly reflected in the plus point, but if the cardinal number has been adjusted downwards, in general, I think that it is definitely statistically significant, and it will definitely help small, medium and micro enterprises.Companies can gradually reduce other financing costs. Of course, it is specific to each company. Because LPR only determines the optimal loan rate, it 深圳桑拿网 cannot be said that it is necessary to reduce it for each company, but I think it is statistically significant orFrom a trend perspective, it definitely helps it reduce its financing costs.
MLF interest rate will be reduced before the end of the first financial: LPR pay attention to MLF, you have previously predicted that MLF may be greatly reduced. At present, depending on the current economic situation and the trend of countercyclical policies, you think it is likely to be reducedIs it still possible?
Color: First of all, I will correct it. I did not explain the downward adjustment. I mean there will be a downward adjustment.
And I still think this view, I think the MLF interest rate will still be reduced before the end of this year.
I think the range of MLF interest rates is much higher than before, because I think that MLF itself is a product of open market 上海夜网论坛 operations, and in addition to it, it actually leads to the role of basic interest rates.Benchmark (benchmark) So when LPR just started quoting, I think that LPR should be allowed to report twice, two or three times, and then see how the overall reforms run in, and we did passIn this way, it is possible to keep the MLF and then lower the LPR.
In this case, I think we can take a look at the final and overall operating conditions of LPR and the market’s response before making a decision.
Therefore, I have no expectation that the MLF interest rate will remain unchanged in September.
We are also facing the goal of achieving two doublings next year, and we feel that the overall call for and looser policies and expectations are getting higher and higher.
In addition, statutory fiscal policies are exerting force, but it may take time to really affect the economy.
Therefore, I feel that under the current steady growth pressure, monetary policy may still need to be adjusted accordingly. I think the countercyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened.
In this case, I think the first is that MLF operations will be normalized.
I mean, now MLF is basically one year.
But I do n’t think it may be a simple sequel to the situation last year after the reform. I think that this overall structure may be adjusted to, because you are now quoted on the LPR on the 20th of each month, I think it is possible.
In theory, if LPR is quoted every month, I think MLF should also be done every month, and then quoted every month. In this case, he will set the tone for LPR, so I think that every month MLF hasOpportunity for a downward adjustment, and I think the MLF interest rate should be lowered in this case.
As early as next year, it is hoped that the benchmark interest rate of the first loan will be canceled: how can we grind a logic for advancing and reforming our current monetary policy decision mechanism?
Color: I think the LPR reform is a particularly important step because of the weak legal system of currency.
It is to open up such a mechanism. In the past, you did not use these amplifiers because the benchmark interest rate was stuck there.
In the future, it will gradually gradually re-anchor the existing loans to LPR. I may think that there should be hope next year, that is, we may think that the benchmark interest rate of loans will be gradually phased out, so I think that the interest rate will be marketizedIt is high, it should be said to be basically completed.
Stimulating consumption is the breakthrough. The overall environment next year will be relatively improved. First Financial: What do you think of the upcoming third quarter data, including the next four quarters and the economic situation that will follow?
Color: I think it may be in the fourth quarter, it may be in 6.
A figure of around 0%, a figure realized in the course of such an overall international environment and a domestic transformation, I think if it is at 6.
0% to 6.
Between 5%, it will basically be within our controllable range, the economy will be operating within a stable and reasonable range, and our macro policies will also make corresponding choices.
I think that with regard to the incentives for consumption, we think that there will be more measures to stimulate the vitality of consumption. This is the first and second. These fiscal policies that I just said will gradually develop their strength, and monetary policies will be preferred first.Soon if he does it, he will be executed immediately, so I think it will still be a relatively progressive process.
So I think we can stabilize GDP at 6 in this environment.
Above 0%, I think it belongs to a stable and reasonable range.
I think the overall global environment will improve next year, and I am actually relatively optimistic next year.